excerpt

Calamity Joe Is Back - Last week, we wrote that various cycles and technicians were pointing to a possible market top, on or about January 23rd. The “causes” ranged from sophisticated oscillators to the new moon to astrological confluences. Yesterday, one more “cause” was added and it came from a somewhat controversial Wall Street legend – Joe Granville. Here’s a bit from a Bloomberg review of Mr. G’s call:

Joseph Granville, whose “sell everything” call in 1981 sparked a decline in U.S. stocks, said the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) will drop toward 8,000 this year because of waning momentum and volume.

 

“Volume precedes prices,” Granville, 88, a technical analyst who has been publishing the Granville Market Letter from Kansas City, Missouri for about 50 years, said in an interview on “Street Smart” on Bloomberg Television. “You are seeing much lower volume. That tells you that prices are going to go much lower, much lower than most people think possible and very few people have projected.”

excerpt

MONDAY, JANUARY 23, 2012
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms. Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago Consensus Index Consensus Bullish Sentiment 69% 68% 66% Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo. Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com AAII Index Bullish 47.2% 49.1% 48.9% Bearish 23.6 17.2 17.2 Neutral 29.2 33.7 34.0 Source: American Association of Individual Investors, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170. Market Vane Bullish Consensus 60% 59% 56% Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490, Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436. FC Market Sentiment Indicator 51.1% 52.8% 53.1% Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900 Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

SPX cash should mark a daily 13 count today thereby ES and NQ are at 10s leaving margin for another 2-3 up days before the market should enter a sharp pullback phase sometime this week as the last positive positive aspect (astrological) fades out. around the 21st a top setting pattern kicks in which matches the 2-3 day scope for a little more upside.

excerpt

	MONDAY, JANUARY 16, 2012
	INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.   Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago Consensus Index   Consensus Bullish Sentiment 68% 66% 59% Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo. Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com AAII Index   Bullish 49.1% 48.9% 40.6%   Bearish 17.2 17.2 30.8   Neutral 33.7 34.0 28.6 Source: American Association of Individual Investors, 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170. Market Vane   Bullish Consensus 59% 56% 54% Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490, Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436. FC Market Sentiment   Indicator 52.8% 53.1% 54.6% Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900 Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Daily SPX counted a daily 11 yesterday ( again running for 13) which might even come today. Sentiment overall has moved to slightly bullish almost on all even ISE MAs are in that territory but most important alarming  should be the NYSE short number.

We are about to make a top for at least a 7-11% retreat from the 1300 level any day now – the only delay may come from the small heliocentric mercury effect which is one more reason to cover Euro shorts for now and even be long briefly as may targets were met around the 1.27 level.

excerpt

Plunge In NYSE Short Interest Explains Recent Market Rally

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/12/2012 12:03 -0500

• Central Banks
• Exchange Traded Fund
• Market Bottom
• Momentum Chasing
• Momo
• NASDAQ
• New York Stock Exchange
• NYSE Short Interest
• Short Interest

UPDATE: As an observation, QQQ Short-Interest is at 11 year lows (January 2001)

Curious what has provoked a vicious year end (and 2012 year beginning) Santa Rally, which until today had seen the S&P trade higher on 12 out of 15 consecutive days? Wonder no more: the reason is the same it has always been – year end short covering, which in turn has spilt over into the new year’s momentum chasing HFT brigade and the occasional retail momo who still has some cash left after covering commission costs. According to the latest NYSE biweekly update, the short interest as of the end of 2011 was a modest 12.8 billion shares, a sharp drop from the 13.4 billion and 14.2 billion 2 and 4 weeks prior, and certainly a very far cry from the over 16 billion shares short which market the market bottom in late September. Also, for anyone wondering why so far 2012 is an identical replica of 2011, decoupling and all, look no further than the SI data as of early 2011 – SSDD. Short covered, and only as the year unwound did they dare to challenge the central banks and to increase their shorting activity.

what can you expect with a corrupt German president  Wulff who has financial deals with obscure people like Maschmayer who is quite a twilight figure and more like the connection of Kennedy with Frank Sinatra

No one has the decency to step down any more but rather to be decent and prudent all along. Ethics and moral hazard is at lows which have not been seen in centuries. Since Michael Douglas said ‘Greed is good’ things have gone downhill.

excerpt

The head of the SNB Philipp Hildebrand has released his first public remarks over the allegation that he, his wife, or his daughter (it is still not quite clear just who frontran the Swiss Bank) profited massively by trading the CHF ahead of the SNB currency floow announcement. Below is a summary of his statement via Reuters and Bloomberg.

NO BREACH OF THE LAW

 

“I have at all times time conducted myself not only as the regulations require but also correctly. I am not aware of any legal breaches. But I understand that the public also asks moral questions.

 

“The rules of the SNB on own trading is equal to the European standards.”

 

SECRECY BREACHED FOR POLITICAL GOALS

 

“I’m sorry that circles, which for years have been vehement proponents of Swiss bank secrecy, are willing to accept gross breaches of banking secrecy in their pursuit of political goals.”

And in summary:

• HILDEBRAND WON’T RESIGN OVER CURRENCY TRADES – as if anyone ever takes responsibility for their crimes, er, actions
• HILDEBRAND SAYS THERE WASN’T ANY ABUSE OF PRIVILEGE- just the law?
• HILDEBRAND SAYS REASON FOR LONG SILENCE WAS LACK OF INFORMATION – unable to plead da fif?
• HILDEBRAND SAYS HE SHOULDN’T HAVE LET HIS WIFE MAKE TRANSACTION – isn’t that always the case?
• HILDEBRAND SAYS HE WAS UNAWARE OF WIFE’S TRANSACTION -it all Bush’s fault… er, the wife, the wife.
• HILDEBRAND SAYS IT’S NOT HIS JOB TO DISCLOSE SOURCE OF LEAK – correct: the cops will do that
• HILDEBRAND SAYS EVENTS HAVE RAISED QUESTIONS DEMANDING ANSWERS – when in doubt – use cliches
• HILDEBRAND SAYS HE’LL COUNTER ATTACKS ON HIS PERSONALITY – he has a great personality
• HILDEBRAND SAYS SNB RULES MEETING EUROPEAN STANDARDS – in blowing up central banks surely
• HILDEBRAND SAYS TURBULENT TIMES DEMAND MORE TRANSPARENCY – no comment
• HILDEBRAND SAYS THERE WAS NO SHORT-TERM CURRENCY SPECULATION – for tax purposes?
• SNB HILDEBRAND SAYS FAMILIY PORTFOLIO FOR LONG-TERM PURPOSES – long-term legal bills and all
• SNB HILDEBRAND SAYS HE WOULDN’T REPEAT TRANSACTIONS TODAY – So no new currency floor coming in the next week?
• HILDEBRAND SAYS HE’LL DRAW PERSONAL CONCULSIONS AT END

Stockmarkets in USA are still due to test the SPX 1300 level the next days before a more severe pullback can be expected. Early next week around the Full Moon should be a good time for a top and a pullback in the 5-7% magnitude thereafter. Once the real top is set which can extend to end Jan not necessarily with new highs but overall the target area is 1310-30 a substantial drop should follow to the 1000 level. First indication for such a move will be a weekly close below 1200 which is the level I expect to be tested after we reach 1300-10.

excerpt

Euro Slumps To 15 Month Lows As BTPs Crack 7% Yield

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2012 – 04:45Consumer Confidence Copper Deutsche Bank European Central Bank France Sovereigns Unemployment

UPDATE: EFSF said to get EUR4bn of orders for 3Y issue is providing some cover (at what rate? We offer to buy 1tn at 300% yield…)

With plenty of time left until France unleashes its supply (and a dismal consumer confidence print earlier), there is a plethora of notable market moves: Unicredit is halted down 7.9% (seems to be the culprit for the initial risk-off turn in Europe), but DeutscheBank is down over 5% on liquidity problem rumors, EURUSD traded under 1.2850 at its lowest level since September 2010, 10Y Italian bonds have pushed well above 7% yields and 510bps spread to Bunds as Unemployment rises to 8.6%, Belgian 10Y yields are over 4.5% – highest in 3 weeks, and the rest ofEuropean Sovereigns are all leaking wider (near wides of the year). Risk assets (CONTEXT) broadly are under pressure but ES (the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract) is holding off yesterday’s early morning lows for now. Commodities are all dropping fast with Gold (actually outperforming in this slide) back at $1615, Oil at $102.50, and Copper approaching $340. Treasuries are bid but trading in line with Bunds’ movements so far in general. Some chatter of ECB buying in the last few minutes is stabilizing things a little here.

So far everything goes according to script the rally keeps marching to our target zone 1300-10, first important step was the gap higher today above the former resistance levels. A benchmark and indicator to follow is Apple as it is about to complete the recent high in the expected 420-30 zone.

The time window for the current wave is around the 9th Jan ( Full Moon) as the FM itself has no significance but it will be in exact T-Square to a natal USA Chiron Saturn opposition. That means some ugly developement will comt to the open as the Full Moon deploys in Cancer which is the sign (4th July) of USA.

Later in Jan we will some some more central bank intervention and if markets sell off sharply even announcement of QE3 officially – unofficially they are running aleady QE3 with their swap lines and the ECB running a never seen before 3 tril balance cheat already whch will not stop Draghi to cut rates below 1 % – he only might hesitate using that bullet in Jan. as the next bullet wil be the last.

My ultimate point for the bigg sell of is rather 7th Feb when Saturn goes retrogade square to the USA Pluto – earnings season will have shown it effects, which should not be good in an overall sense anyway.

Who will run against Obama will be crucial as well – I hope its Ron Paul but the odds are not so high – my first check on his astrology shows a mixed picture. Have to dig a bit deeper but one of the opportunists running for the WH will probably cheer up the market briefly which will be around the Full Moon.

With the ECB close to the 3 tril mark and the FED as well we can say all those printing machines did not do a lot after all this are humangous epic proportions of market manipulation. They say everything about the situation of the financial system and if you just think one step ahead it will get really ugly – no way out but he ugly one and from Syria to North Korea enough trigger points to start WW3.

Now that even Gold is not a save place to hide anymore desperation slowly will make markets more and more unsufficient as retailers will drop out of the game entirely. A little conspiracy theory from the WSJ ( which is Murdoch) and will never release the truth even if it knows it.

excerpt

WSJ On DSK, DisUnion, And The Dismal Dithering In Europe

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2011 – 11:55Dominique Strauss-Kahn Global Economy Greece International Monetary Fund Wall Street Journal

In an interesting history, today’s WSJ points to a closed-door meeting in Washington on April 14th of this year as the moment that the attempts to ‘save’ Europe began to unravel. The player at the center of the debacle – one Dominique Strauss-Kahn – was pressing for more ‘help’ from Europe or else the IMF would not deliver more magic-money to the Greeks. The ultimatum drove a wedge between many competing camps over who should be on the hook for more or less of the money required to save this tiny sovereign. Critically, as we have pointed out again and again, it is not (in this case) size that matters, but the precedent that a nation leaving the socialist construct of the Euro ‘breaks’ the union and the WSJ weaves a torrid tale of this increasing tension and DSK’s catalytic impact and timely ‘dismissal’ from the process. Furthermore, the clear ‘dithering‘ they describe among these so-called leaders offers insights into what we can expect going forward as a new fiscal compact (same as the old one) begins to emerge with mid-March hard Greek deadlines looming fast.