Wednesay brainstorming

•March 21, 2012 • Leave a Comment

1. AAPL has landed an early success it seems with IPAD 3  but it has quite some issues as overheating and WiFi perception, which will slow down the second wave buyers after the hype buyers craze slows down. I have to say from my own experience as I own the recent air book and 4s İphone – which are both incredible but both have issues as my biggest disappointment is the battery of the air book which makes it to 2 hours plus but never above 3 hours and nowhere near the 6-7 hours. The iPhone battery is also still an issue although I am not a heavy user at all with almost no web browsing I hardly make it through a day. Airbbooks battery is a huge disappointment for me but the rest is a class of its own.

We have very strong bearish divergence patterns in the making and The DOW after the 13 count has already started to turn but we need the weekly close to confirm any such matter. NDX icon the verge of a top as it is very close to the 50% retracement level area and counts a daily 11 today with a weekly 12. The intriguing combination though is the spring equinox and the next days ‘wild thing’ New Moon with a quick fading super bullish pattern, which will replaced by an sleeping negative pattern any moment now.

The target areas for an intermediate top is 1420-40 SPX and 2750-800 NDX and we can expect now finally a volatile correction pattern like in 87 also in the 10% range before the uptrend will resume to its final and destructive pattern highs which sucks in all bears lie a black whole to destroy the bulls who dared to make  some money finally from this huge charade bull campaign who were to greedy or do not belong to the inside f this game.

Monday brainstorming

•March 19, 2012 • Leave a Comment

1. Finally the rumor of the dividend for AAPL is confirmed as a fact with a stock buyback on modest levels but more importantly it will help to finalize the technical picture of AAPL as we had a daily 11 count after a sees of those in this megatrend but still this one will mark a temporary high for the NDX. which is now very close to the 50% retracement level around 2800. The first big wave up ended close to the 38% retracemnet level in 2007. NDX made an 11 count last week as we are now heading into expiration week and into an astro turn pattern as this very benign double triangle fades away the New Moon on the 22nd is in conjunction to Uranus which implies a volatile turn in trends.

Since that New Moon triggers the Uranus Pluto square as well more unrest like in Syria can be expected together with sudden turns in fixed income markets and currencies.

Euro just is about to finalize the right shoulder within an H&S pattern with the neckline at 1.30 ready to drop below the 1.30 level towards 1.25 initially.

This market has plenty of parallels to 1987 so far – back then we also had a 3 month consolidation form March through May before the final blow off came followed by a crash. Well the fundamental situation is very different but the technical is quite the same. Central banks will be pumping more insane amounts of money after the 10 trill they pumped just the last 3 years. Faber is right there is now way back until the Titanic runs against the Iceberg of greed and deception.

This is a dejavu market for me but I could not figure out what bull campaign it matches yet.

Thursday brainstorming

•March 16, 2012 • Leave a Comment

1.Well the only stock which seems to move is Apple ( simplified) but we have moved out of cheap to more than fair valued. I have the feeling we have another VW situation as some shorts must be the driver of this daily 2-3% drive up. Although nothing new has happened but an anyway improved IPAD and the TV rumor. well on the TV I can say after having tested Siri myself – its rather a very early stage of voice control yet as Siri is a nice toy but far from what advertisement makes believe. Some people may be ready to pay a premium for apple TVs but I do not see what kind of value added Apple can bring to the game but a very smart Tivo kind of system working on voice- which is rather very early Beta. IPADs LTE is globally not useable so after all you buy a Retina display and I do not see a the sky is the limit situation.

Coming back to technicals the NDX rose with AAPL to 2715 with the 50% retracement at 2750. As we have parallel an 11 weekly count for AAPl and the NDX its now a matter of another week up rather modestly from now on.

ES makes a double daily 13 today and the SPX max move should be limited to 1440 but the later one I suspect is rather the target after an imminent correction. As the market has drifted a bit higher with more bailout money for banks they have some trouble ahead right now as Bonds are dropping sharply and the carry trade is turning into losses. It seems another 1987 will be at hand soon as so far a repetition is close at hand. Again Facebook will mark the high sometime in Q2 but before we will have a volatile top building process which will begin about end of next week expiration. Probably an inter market divergence is about t start with the SPX rather turning downside after today even.

Tuesday brainstorming

•March 6, 2012 • Leave a Comment

1. after 2 weeks dancing around the 13000 DOW level the market stated the correction with Venus opposite Saturn and the Full MOON on the 7th. at an trouble point. After the banisters got ultimate support from their central bank puppets who pumped never seen before amours f money into the system now close to 20 trill. – that is half the value of all global stock markets at ‘zero’ and the FED made clear no QE3 soon as inflation spirals out of control with oil prices manipulated up by the Jewish Establishment and ironically their  official opponents having the same interest ( Russia and Arab countries) the burden on consumers will filter through to real economy as the energy tax takes away substantial buying power. Even more so in non US geographics as a cold and stubborn winter keeps heating bills high.

All the press about the Israel attack in Iran is rather a camouflage game to keep oil up on one hand but there is another deeper story going on as well. Obama will never go for war so close to elections since he is also not to eager to loose his biggest financial supporters which were rather Jewish he will try to play both sides. Only a 9/11 event – which could be arranged again could bring america into direct position for an attack. The Saudis were directly involved into the 9/11 event members of the commission have declared and is at all a strike against Saudi Arabia would be at order but since if that were true it would rather hint to a covert operation of US intel being part of the 9/11 conspiracy none will dig deeper and open the Pandora box.

Russia and China took quite a tough stance against any attack on Iran and Israel is well aware of that risk. It is rather in China and Russia’s interest to destabilize the Middle east more and get rather rid of the SA kingdom to gain more control of the oil, plus Russia and Putin do benefit from the high prices anyway. I do not believe an attack is imminent as the technology transfer from Russia or China to Iran can be done at any time on the one hand. More importantly Iran is not Syria there will be serious retaliation and america will need plenty of Jack Bauers to save the nation from dirty bombs since an attack will just support the fanatic camp of so called terrorists, who are also created by the CIA anyway mostly in order to keep control. That is an aggressive strategy at best case – may also be an evil conspiracy worst case..

Markets are now heading for the imminent 5-10% correction, depending on countries and indices with 2% already delivered. we are in wave 1 of A right now and we could see a small bounce from the 1350 level before more downside comes as soon as Thursday as the odds are high the Greece debt swap will not go through as the ECB has indicated.

 

thursday brainstorming – liquidity in unseen waves is running through the system

•February 23, 2012 • Leave a Comment

and creating this rising tide of various assets who are literally inflated by the trillions the central banks pump into the banks at no cost for them. The price of creating some easy money for banksters has to be paid again by the public with gasoline prices rising to new record levels. The price will soon be sharply dropping economies followed by raging mobs burning down the corrupt politicians and elite estates answered by more police state and civil war in worst case. In order to distract the people the  elite is already organizing WW3 as we have now enough trigger points from Afghanistan to Iran a clash with the Muslim world is in order and prepared. Channeling the hate and frustration to other targets is a classic pattern and will create a new cycle of money making in the evil circle of life as long as its run by this so called elite.

We are getting close now to complete all missing links as Apple has reached the target are to complete the count and the VIX needs the one close around 17 before a more meaningful correction can start. Demark might be right that the first stage will be a frustrating top as we will cycle through a industry rotation- hence for now the max downside for the SPX is the 1250-60 level. Since Greece (or rather the bank payout pool) has been funded for the next weeks at least. I am not sure if the Hedge funds will dare to challenge the CAC since they depend on good relations to central banks and politicians if they do not have a clean book. Almost all of them have worked along the lines of legality and an investigation could close the shop. It is a fragile power setup but if the side within the EU which wants  Greece and some others out is strong enough they rather could support the Funds to screw the swap deal.

Behind the curtains a totally different powergame is on and an EU with those weak partners is not sustainable anyway. They are just divided on how to resolve the situation as some want to make big bucks from the inevitable meltdown – the question is how to do so without being wiped out if the situation spins out of control. I doubt that a default of Greece would create any kind of Lehman situation with all the liquidity around but with tens of trillions in OTC derivatives on interest rate structures is it hard to say how close we are to an financial armageddon. The Greece default is so highly anticipated that it is priced in anyway the question is how close are the other PIIGS to a default as the DRAGHI BTP bubble is a charade but with trillions of zero interest money they can keep up the game a little while more.

 

Tuesday brainstoming – morons at work

•February 21, 2012 • Leave a Comment

Sorry for the delay – have been moving to a new city and the place gets completely redone. Plus trading in and out of the shorts – always a tough game for a contrarian (mostly) especially entering shorts too early. Hope dies much harder than fear and in these special case as not the classic retail crowd is in the markets the endless and never seen before moıney printing exercise of all central banks together with moronic and corrupt politicians makes it even a bit harder. That is not supposed to be an excuse as its quite a deja vu to 2007 which was also very manipulated but this is a quantum leap compared all laws of physics have been eliminated it seems.

Lets come back to the current situation – the so called Greece bailout 2,0 is entirely another bank bailout as all the 130 bil. goes straight to banks – the trillions banks have got thrown into their black hole operations is not countable anymore as even the so called mortgage settlement with US banks which should rather be a punishment is nothing but a hidden subsidy of taxpayer money. It is fracking unbelivable what this  bunch of banksters get to keep up the game of theft and deception.

Timing is good though as we rose into this benign New Moon tomorrow and the only missing link is the 13 count in the VIX, which needs a close around 17 to complete the sequence and trigger a steeper correction of 5-7% to start with. Also we are very close to the May 20011 1370 SPX high and are making a daily 13 after a weekly 9 count. Ideal would be if Apple closed around 520 today or tomorrow. The NDX around into heavy resistance around the 2600-30 area which it will not be able to take out now and for the next weeks. Sentiment is very bullish now and ripe for a correction but the timing of sentiment is not a approach but the retrogade Saturn should start its process now as the also retrogade Mars has delayed the effects it seems.

This Greece bailout package which is not helping Greece at all since their haircut does not even match the new credits taken by the EU is running into deeper debt – all those stupid calculations of income from taxes and asset sales will never happen anywhere close to the assumptions and the deep depression their economy is poised to go through thanks to the austerity will jeopardize all those moronic plans ( which are just camouflage in the best case – if some idiot politicians really believe in those numbers  they are even bigger enemies than those doing deception on intention.

wednesday brainstorming

•February 15, 2012 • Leave a Comment

The US markets are in squeeze iş to the last drop mode as we are about to challenge the April highs of 2010 around 1360. The below chart is the SPX cash and we are on the ES (SP mini future) already at a 12 count today. The most important stock for timing is Apple as it made an 11 count yesterday and is far above weekly and monthly Bolls – that means a pullback is imminent. As it was the case around the 400 level. Again around 510-20 Apple should top out within 48h as will the SPX in the 1350-65 zone. The pulllback should be in the first stage down to 1290-1300 testing the support and crucial will be for more dowside to close below on a weekly basis. th e point is only that medium term the NDX looks poised for more gains as does Apple especially if they really deliver a TV product. Nevertheless we are about to enter a consolidation and correction mode until the Facebook IPO which is a classic big top parameter as it will be a heavy weight index contributor with a 100 bil valuation.

 
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