Turkey XU100 medium-term technical outlook – alert

On the left hand, the weekly XU100 chart, which has evidently broken below a crucial neckline this week at 31500. Sooner than I thought but the downtrend has entered now a more severe scenario if the weekly close remains below 31500. Nevertheless, it’s only a matter of time that it will happen and that the market will drop to 22/3000 over the next months. This is also confirmed by evident patterns in the underlying currency which is poised to lose between 15-20% over the next 6 months. If this weekly close confirms the breach, we should find temp support around 27500 within 2-3 weeks followed by a brief rally of up to 5000 points at least to 30/1000 before the downtrend will resume. In case we rally back above 31500 for this week, I will have to update the scenario since a rate cut of some degree on a global scale should happen this week.

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~ by behindthematrix on October 8, 2008.

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