NDX technical – a different look

On the left hand, the monthly NDX chart and we still have the steepest drop below the Bollinger and the CCI indicator reached the steepest point so far. The indicator turns before the lowest point is reached (which it has not so far) and the snap back effect will be in November, as it happens with the next bar usually. From that low (end of this downleg), we will get a powerful rally for 2-3 months. The potential for the low is down to 1090 (2002 low), which also fits with price patterns we broke recently (we had to drop 550 points below 1650). The only surprising factor is the speed by which we do this, the pattern allowed for1 year to do that. It took me by surprise as it unfolded so quickly but we have the examples of 74/5 and 1929, plus markets needed to be revalued as they were expensive compared to stress times for economies. Expect more downside into the first week November and that will be a short opportunity to make money on the long side or to get rid of stocks if you still own them.

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~ by behindthematrix on October 17, 2008.

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