HGX (housing index) technical outlook – market update

The HGX index was one of the bigger winners today – but again I do not think we are finished yet. Some good news came from California home sales with a big jump in sales of foreclosure homes. We are definitely in wave 5 and, as you can see, it is a mature downtrend of over 3 years but the demand for new houses is not in sight anytime soon. The job market has to go still to the ugly zone and the credit crunch is far from being over. Anyway, we need another 3-4 weeks and at least another test of the 80/85 area before we might see a severe thrust above 100.

I have the impression that someone is trying to engineer a rally in the overall market by all sort of instances (Buffett cheerleading, Barron’s “it ain’t so bad” cover story). Today’s rise in an extremely thin market is not the stuff which makes real money buy. Anyway, up to 1030 SPX the market is neutral, so we have to follow carefully what happens tomorrow and due to the little upleg in Oil. I was expecting oil stocks to rise but not in this crazy manner, 🙂 XOM will not be able to sustain earnings over $2 per quarter, at these oil prices they rather make 1.60, since their overseas income is decreasing due to a stronger Dollar, hence they are not cheap above 70 (especially not with Obama as President).

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~ by behindthematrix on October 20, 2008.

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