Technical outlook for Monday – basically the same situation

I am still on a business trip and facing some tech problems, therefore I might not be able to deliver charts along with the text.  

The capitulation mode seems to have switched to the Asian and European area as more selling pressure in those regions occur.  That does not change the picture for the US markets – we are heading lower and need to test the 2002 lows to get a real bottom (that’s true for SPX and DOW).  The NDX has a target in the 1100 probably 1050 area.  The first thing the SPX should test though is the 849 and NDX 1150 for starters.  The VIX remains at 12 – we need more selling pressure to reach those higher VIX levels for the ultimate 13 print, which will put us on alert for a market low.

EURUSD has a daily 12 Combo signaling a short-term bottom is close as we approach our target at 1.22. That is also an indication that a temp low at least will be in place soon.  As we can expect at least a 50BP cut on Wednesday by the FED – markets then start to price in a 75BP cut, but I doubt the FED will do that.  Actually the ECB and UK need to cut more aggressively to turn around the markets but that is on regular schedule on a later date.

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~ by behindthematrix on October 27, 2008.

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