Technical update – market wrap-up

The NDX daily produced the SEQ 13 today and the Combo 12, as we can see on the left hand. Tomorrow we will get the 13 but that is not necessarily the spot-on day for markets to turn. The price action rather asks for a test of the 1100 level for the NDX, as the SPX should dive down to 800, even down to 770 probably. It might only get tricky as JPM today said that the October 2008 low (839 SPX) might do the trick – which might for a few days work out. As we have another indicator for a short-term bounce, the ISEE option ratio closed at 67 which is an extreme but only on a daily basis the MA’s are still ‘high’ (around 110). MA’s of option ratios below 100 would be an alert for a bigger move, hence around 840 SPX we might see some buyers stepping in.

I rather hope we do the inevitable right away and go into the next capitulation to get the market short again. The technical picture does require lower levels, as does the sentiment with too many hopes for the year end rally to help the longs out. Ironically, we only can get that as those give up on and even are forced to sell or go short. That Paulson changed the ballgame again (the TARP will not buy mortgage related assets from banks anymore – they switch now to the next trouble area of asset backed bonds like credit cards or other consumer related loans) is destabilizing the market again – I wonder how much pay the experts who show up on TV to praise him and Bernanke (as they paid the ex -Generals who were “experts” for the Iraq war to misguide people with false information).

On top of all that, Intel came after market with a warning on ales for Q4 .


~ by behindthematrix on November 13, 2008.

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