DOW technical outlook – with a possible disastrous H&S pattern building

The DOW monthly is a total different animal as it made new all time highs while the NDX made the 38% retracement. We are trading around the 200 month MA at approx. 8500 and did test the 2002/3 lows. The MACD is alos closer to an extreme level but here we clearly dropped below a long term support. In count terms we are still in wave 3 down and wave 3 of 3 seems to be finished but we do not have the evidence yet. That is the Feb. bar which will show where we stand in wave-count terms. There is even the chance we are building a huge head and shoulder pattern with the neckline running along at 7500 – but that’s a long term shot and much too early to call for. It would implicate we would have to built the right shoulder over 1-2 years between 7500 and 11000 before dropping below. The implied target of such a pattern is disastrous though since the target would be around 500. For the short term we can conclude that 7500 is a strong support for now ( Q1 and Q2 2009) and another dip to that area is a buying opportunity.


~ by behindthematrix on January 12, 2009.

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