Do not get fooled by this green shout propaganda – they want to suck you in
Dropping Schiller house prices at highest pace again yesterday and the fact that there is no bottom in sight for real estate is the reality. Economy losses jobs by over 600k per week – Obama promised to generated 4 mil. jobs over 2 years by spending 800 bil (quite optimistic). Reality is that is the amount of jobs within 2 months at current speed. We have to be aware that the whole system of capitalism as we have it now is purely designed to enrich an elite of bankers and the club members of the Bilderberger which includes their lobbyists and helpers in government and administration. The system depends on the situation that debt is the natural source of their income and the modern way of enslavement of the other population. The dominant thought in today’s society is how can I pay all the debt I have ( education,shelter and living standard) and you almost have no chance to escape the system unless your an Internet wizard or make it to Wallstreet to get an elite slave as you still depend on the good will of the ‘club’ to keep you on your feet’s.
All current interventions were primarily focused to fic the banking system America has allocated over 10 tril for that problem and just 800 bil for Mainstreet ( which partly flows back to the banks anyway. The government does not work for the people they just have to make sure you vote for them at current society model so you get some little perks which make them look they care ( some certainly do – most are rather after their own perks). Since the so called aristocracy has been replaced by democracy which is just a camouflage as it is in communism because they also created an elite of bureaucrats who got all the perks and the others are citizens of a second and third class in Russia and China – things have not really changed. The elite always considers themselves in the position to get more for whatever reason and makes sure it stays that way in every society we have but apparently none will survive as they all can not manage the events longer than 1 or 2 generations.
Well as I wrote months ago we would get this rally towards summer and that this mark a great opportunity to get rid of stocks because there is an evidence like summer and winter there are seasons and cycles of all kinds and we entered into a big contraction wave which will last for at least an decade. In 1930 many Guru’s called for the end of the downturn and one of those were also Rockefeller and JP Morgan besides many others and all were wrong. Subprime and Alt A just give a number of 4 tril which may completely default and even the prime mortgage segment is defaulting in some segments that are just the numbers for America. So far the total losses amount to 1.5 tril but only half of that is connected to mortgage we have not seen anything yet which was really severe and an definite indication is that nothing has been changed about banking and the guys who brought us all into this are still sitting in the driver seats hence the cancer is still alive and spreading. All they did is to dope us with high dosis so we are numb and do not feel all the pain right now. Why is Japan after 20 years still not out of their down cycle with zero interest rates and had a big time growing China to deliver too which both did not do the trick? Ask yourself why a Greenspan who denied there was a bubble for many years and worked as a Bank lobbyist became the FED chair. People who are working against the interest of the position they hold are a regular event these days Paulson,Geithner and Bernanke are current proves of that pattern. It is not their incapability but rather the fact that they have a hidden agenda they work for they people who put them their ( although many might be aware of that only partly as they only have a partial knowledge about the things going on behind the scenes). In any case the current straw fire is bound to last another 2-3 months before things turn ugly again so may get under the impression they did the trick.
Mortgage Applications Sink as Loan Rates Rise
The highest home loan rates in more than two months drained demand for refinancing last week, dragging total U.S. mortgage applications to the lowest level since early March, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.
The average 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.12 percentage point to 4.81 percent, above a low of 4.61 percent two months ago though down more than a percentage point from a year ago.
Refinancing has been the lifeblood of the renewed push for mortgage funding much of this year, and even that has lost steam, according to the industry group’s data.
Total U.S. mortgage applications fell 14.2 percent in the week ended May 22 to 786.0 on a seasonally adjusted basis, well off a recent peak of 1,250.6 in early April.
Home loan refinance requests last week slumped 18.9 percent to 3,890.4, about half of the 6,813.5 peak in early April.
Refinancings accounted for just over 69 percent of all applications, after hovering closer to 75 percent in recent weeks.
Elliott Wave Guru Sees Dark Days Ahead
MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
One of America’s most famous market forecasters thinks that investors should play it safe with their investments.
ROBERT PRECHTER, THE market forecaster who told investors to sell their stocks weeks before the October 1987 crash, is back in the news.
Prechter, head of market-forecasting firm Elliot Wave International and author of several books, including Conquer the Crash (available from Amazon.com), has been quoted recently as saying that the current recession could last for a long time and even force stock markets back down to levels seen at the market bottom reached in March of this year.
Barron’s caught up with Prechter by phone this week to understand the technical trading signs he looks at to draw conclusions about investor sentiment.
Barrons.com: You’ve said that today’s recession represents a very deep and prolonged decline, akin to the 1929-1932 depression. What’s your reason for viewing things as so dire?
Robert Prechter: My model is that naturally occurring waves of optimism and pessimism, which result from unconscious herding, are the driver of financial and macroeconomic trends. Upon rare occasion, waves of very large degree come to an end. In the financial realm, when people get more pessimistic, they sell stocks and curtail credit. They also take fewer risks in the realm of production, which causes the economy to contract. Taken together, these changes — at very large degree — portended a downward revaluation of the stock market, a deflation in credit and a depression.
Q: By what measure are you judging this pessimism?
A: Aside from price patterns per se, we track waves of social mood by way of psychological indicators. At large degree, we use things such as price/dividend, price/book and bond yield/stock yield ratios, mutual fund cash percentages, the number of investors bullish vs. bearish, credit spreads, savings rates, consumer sentiment, duration of optimism, and so on. From 1998 to 2007, these measures set records. P/E is still setting records. Optimism occurs at tops, and the more extreme the optimism, the bigger the degree of the top.
Q: Some observers allege that steps taken by President Roosevelt during the early part of the Great Depression ended up prolonging the depression. Will policy decisions being enacted now ameliorate or exacerbate the current decline?
A: Governments’ policy decisions hamper and ruin economies all the time, but their meddling does not affect waves of social mood. On the contrary, waves of social mood generally spur governments to act. The 1929-1932 collapse caused the government to get restrictive and separate commercial and investment banks in 1933; this was after the bust it was designed to prevent was over. The 1990s boom caused government to get frisky and repeal the act in 1999; this was just as the boom it was designed to foster was ending. These policy decisions did not cause any changes in social mood, but the social mood trends predicted the character of the policy changes. Government herds, just like everyone else, but it is at the tail end of the herd, because it takes time for a consensus to develop so extensively that government has the public support to act.