Oil tech update and general thoughts

Wave A up in Oil is in as it is for stock markets
as they trade in sink with each other. We can expect now a retreat back
to the 50/5 area before wave C up will complete the corrective upmove around 78/80.

Starting
in Q4 we will see a severe downturn again in overall economic activity
which will undermine the demand even more and we can expect the retest
of the lows but at some point we will see a decoupling of Oil from the stockmarket and economic correlations
as the supply situation might change with plenty geopolitical risks
developing a rising momentum and we can even expect that some big oil
exporters might have rather interest in heating up the tensions in
order to keep prices up. Chavez already gave such hints but also Russia
will have a severe interest in keeping oil above 50 rather closer to
100 in order to survive the global downturn. What I am trying to say
that with another severe downturn in economic activities stocks will
fall to new lows but commodities might take a different path after
going both down
initially but the central banks throwing money even faster this time also on the real economy will create inflationary pressure.

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~ by behindthematrix on June 22, 2009.

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