part 2

2. A rumor (well timed) before market opening drove some shorts to cover as an imminent G7 intervention was due (to screw markets) – I wonder what they can do as they do it anyway on a daily basis already. So far we made a regular bounce and in the 1275-80 area the SPX should turn down again to test at least the 1250-60 area once again. Once we are back there and can not go to new lows tomorrow we might have seen the low of wave 3 yesterday as my target zone close to 2180 was already reached yesterday. Tomorrow is big expiration and people will not take risk before the WE but if nothing disastrous happens Monday should start with a bounce. More on that as we see the closing action today which should give us some clues but the underlying effect remains big trouble still ahead and markets poised to drop much further. Oil chart cries for more upside and inflation is already gaining speed and will be another source of troule as the aftermath of the contamination will drive food prices much higher as we do not hear any truth and probably never will from official sources.


Meantime, if you read this fine explanation in lay terms of what’s going on, you might catch a familiar writing style, wink-wink, nudge-nudge.  Just go read this nuclear professional’s assessment of how things seem likely to continue unwinding and pay particular attention to his conclusions:

  • We will watch reports closely to determine whether “the spent fuel had died out and has caught fire (unlikely but this is his big worry right now because it would lead to a big [think Chernobyl – G] release.
  • Watch for containment breaches being reported at units 1,2, or 3.
  • Watch the dose readings in the high millisieverts/hour range.

As long as we’re shaping a well-informed opinion, you may wish to read a “paper by Alvarez et al. (2003a; see also Thompson, 2003)” at the site here, which considered something the nuclear industry isn’t too fond of talking about, namely the loss of cooling water in spent-rod storage.  This part in particular:

“Alvarez and his co-authors concluded that such an event would lead to the rapid heat-up of spent fuel in a dense-packed pool to temperatures at which the zirconium alloy cladding would catch fire and release many of the fuel’s fission products, particularly cesium-137. They suggested that the fire could spread to the older spent fuel, resulting in long-term contamination consequences that were worse than those from the Chemobyl accident. Citing two reports by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL, 1987, 1997), they estimated that between 10 and 100 percent of the cesium-137 could be mobilized in the plume from the burning spent fuel pool, which could cause tens of thousands of excess cancer deaths, loss of tens of thousands of square kilometers of land, and economic losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The excess cancer estimates were revised downward to between 2000 and 6000 cancer deaths in a subsequent paper (Beyea et at., 2004) that more accurately accounted for average population densities around U.S. power plants. “

One of the conclusions of this was that Alvarez and coauthors suggested that wet-cooled rods should be moved to dry storage within 5-years.


About here, you might be asking “OK, why not?


The answer is simple:  Real estate and access.  Money.


Spent fuel rods can be stored close together when in a water-moderating bath.  Put them into dry storage and they need to be spread out.  That takes real estates, perimeter control, separation from the public, and as out early reader bonus since 2001, protection from terrorism.


In short the nuclear industry could have avoided this, but it would have added cost and we assume you remember that the nuclear power business is the single most heavily subsidized industry.  Big Tobacco and Florida Sugar  would be envious.


What more happens?  Well, let’s move along to the plume, which is expected over the US Aleutian Islands today, and into Canada and the US tomorrow.


One of the better plume animations has been put together by Der Standard of Austria online here which shows what’s feed into the jet stream.  Another is The Weather Space page here.


From there, you can step through the 160º E by 30º to 40º N and then take a look at the 5-day SFSU jet stream animation build here.



~ by behindthematrix on March 17, 2011.

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