EURTRY update

Our mid term target 2.25 was reached and we rather have here an indication of 2 things as the market is overbought but that is also due to the EURO topping out against the Dollar short term in the 1.42/3 area. We can expect a pullback best case to 2.05 level due to Euro weakness on one hand but also short term Lira strength as Turkey is heading for big elections in June and the first time the ruling party might be challenged in 9 years will have markets on their toes but we might get the first polls in April still confirming a likely win of the AKP. Going forward I doubt it will be a smooth win and it could end up being a coalition again after 9 years which would be disastrous for the Lira. On the other hand the developement in the Middle East will be very challenging  for the AKP anyway as they have developed close ties with the countries in the Middle East who are on a revolutionary run but the change of command could turn out to be problematic. The economic ties with them will have an negativ effect on Turkey anyway right now as Turkey had shifted and  was planning even for much more of trade with them which is on hold or disrupted. Hence the long term effect is rather for much more weakening of the Lira towards 2.80-3.00 but that also depends on the EURO as an announcement of QE3 would crash the Dollar and send the EURTRY above  the neckline at 2.25. The second effect is that Turkey might have a positive tourism situation at hand as all the Middle East tensions will drive plenty of new bussiness to the Turkish shores with a cheaper Lira even.

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~ by behindthematrix on March 29, 2011.

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