tuesday brainstorming

1. On the mark when Mars opposed Saturn, bad news swept the world and brought markets to their knees for a few hours. That was a taste of the things to come in a few weeks as one news was merely reported about as it is a deal-breaker going forward for the bull campaign.


Far more important was this news from the FT (via PragCap) that the Fed is about to confirm the end of QE.

Specifically, it’s expected to signal at its April 27 meeting that there will be no more asset purchases at the end of June.

I am not so sure that the FED would announce such a crucial change so early as it would send down markets and in the current fragile situation could even cause a crash. Since we are still in Mercury retrogade mode a lot of the news flow these days can be doubted to some degree.

In any case the market has lost its melt up mode and some people are preparing for the exits is the least one could say with Gold at 1500 as Universities take physical delivery.

NDX made very interesting moves yesterday as it closed a gap with a gap plus the gap that started the slide was defended on the upside, which clearly indicates that a top is building. Short term my downside targets were reached overall even a bit stretched in the case of the NDX as 2270 was the mark. Apple rally took the market back up as some are betting on a good quarter earning release on Wednesday. I think later this week we turn markets back up as some good earnings should come but the bulls have not much time left.

MONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011  Blank Image
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 69% 71% 67%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish 42.3% 43.6% 41.8%
Bearish 31.0 28.9 31.1
Neutral 26.8 27.6 27.1
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus 58% 62% 60%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator 57.0% 58.0% 58.0%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Market Sentiment

~ by behindthematrix on April 19, 2011.

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