wednesday brainstorming

1. Markets go as expected south with the several crises at hand deteriorating and not really discounted at all. SPX has been trading in a wedge down and it looks like we have broken below today in premarket ( more on that in the update). The strange thing though so far in the market is that the market drops in slow motion and the VIX stays at low levels  so far. At some point we will have a mini crash which puts a higher speed on the drop but that may be in June. So far May is a pure down month after the Bin Laden death set the highs and it looks like a reversal month as it is a 9 count month that is quite bad news for bulls. It seems the FED looks for a controlled slide as they want to have reason to activate QE3 soon with QE2 ending end of June.

The next days the downside will pick up some speed til the 30th and when we will see very likely a counter-move but more on that as we go along. Bullish sentiment has been reduced quite a bit in the meantime but we have not reached a bearish sentiment which might hint to a temporary end of the downmove.


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MONDAY, MAY 23, 2011 Blank Image
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 65% 70% 73%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441.
AAII Index
Bullish 26.7% 30.8% 35.5%
Bearish 41.3 35.5 31.9
Neutral 32.0 33.7 32.7
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus 58% 64% 65%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator 56.9% 57.5% 57.9%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180.
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Market Sentiment


~ by behindthematrix on May 25, 2011.

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