part 2

2. Some currency trading ideas of mine

Here is another reason why shorting the Yen is a very good idea as we have reached my target zone to set up the trade at 79.50 I want to buy the Dollar/Yen at least with 30% of my single trade budget which should not exceed 10% of  the overall portfolio. Last night we already had the first intervention by the BOJ – missed with my overnight limit by a few pips just for a quick trade. We actually need a weekly close below 80 to activate the real trade

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9a0Q1v93SA&feature=player_embedded#at=120

The other is the Euro TRY has come close to the next target level of 2.32 – 35(sorry wrong handle)  as we have elections this weekend in Turkey and the ruling party is poised to win again – its rather a matter of with what magnitude if they make it above 45% which has a probability of 60% they can run the show again on their own. A coalition government would be a selling reason short to medium term for stocks and TRY but not very likely. Although astrology says there shall be some trouble as the stationary Saturn the day after the election will be square to the Turkish Pluto but that can be due to any outcome of the elections as some trouble is ahead from many angles. Still the chart suggest that we will have a turn from the 2.35 level which is also based on the Euro/Dollar moves on the other hand. A win of the AKP will strengthen the TRY short term though plus the summer season brings tourists who are seasonal buyers of the TRY.

Finally we have reached a short term top in the EURUSD around 1.4650 although at some point we will jump above the  1.50 threshold and go for 1.60 but that is rather dependent on the announcement of QE3and that is something the FED can only pull of with a DOW at least 1000 points lower – in order to save the world ( that is what they will claim). In the mean time Obama presses Merkel to do something she was never able to do but more ironic is the fact that a guy who (Obama) cannot handle his own crisis dares to give others advice. If you have a chance to see their pic below enlarged, the faces tell the whole story. For now the Greece effect will overshadow the Dollar trouble as their is no smooth solution and Greece could have a hidden agenda as to pull an Argentina would be more beneficial for them but that is something the global financial markets might not digest easily if at all.

excerpt

Merkel Pressed by Obama to Take Lead in Europe Debt Crisis

Merkel Pressed by Obama to Take Lead in Europe Debt Crisis

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is heading home with a message from President Barack Obama to take the lead in managing Europe’s debt crisis.

While hosting Merkel for the highest-profile visit of a German leader to the White House in 16 years, Obama made it clear he’s looking to policy makers in Europe’s largest economy to prevent an “uncontrolled spiral of default” in countries such as Greece to avoid “disastrous” harm to the U.S. economy.

“We think that America’s economic growth depends on a sensible resolution of this issue,” Obama said at a joint news conference with Merkel in Washington yesterday. Merkel, while saying it is in Germany’s interest to help debt-laden countries, stuck to her stand that such countries must commit to becoming more competitive in return.

Their remarks underscored the differing agendas as both countries pledge to support action to avoid the euro area’s first default, more than a year after bailing out Greece in the debt crisis that has led Ireland andPortugal to seek international aid.

“If the euro as a whole is in danger, it’s in Germany’s interest — and in every country’s interest — to help,” Merkel said. “At that point, we will of course take action, but we will act in a way that’s sustainable.”

Obama said Greece will need private investment and “structural reforms” to make it more competitive and more transparent in its economy.

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~ by behindthematrix on June 8, 2011.

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