SPX update

That was quite a performance the only thing not working out so far was the VIX staying insanely low so far. The coming week we have big expiration coming and A lunar Eclipse almost on the same day. That gives us 2 different scenarios how this can play out. We are arleady close to daily Bollinger and the weekly is around 1260 next week with 1250 area being strong support short term for many reasons. We are currently in a week 4 count although we are in the 6th downweek. Typically counts 5-6 tend to be countertrends most of the time as we are quite oversold short term and someone wants to keep the VIX below 20 for now  we can expect a bounce from the 1250 level. Scenario one is we rise to the 1290-1300 level once again before dropping to 1150 thereafter ( could get even much more severe). The other less likely as some people even figured we have an inverted Head& Shoulder pattern – we make the right shoulder from the 1250 level which would bring the market far above 1300 once again and take weeks before the next wave down starts ( less likely). The point is month 9 count with a 13 has turned out to be the top so far which hints clearly to the chance of a trendchange.

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~ by behindthematrix on June 10, 2011.

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