monday brainstorming

1. Timing looks good for wave 4 up starting tomorrow likely as I have no doubt with the new EU strategy only to release funds to Greece after they agree on the measures ( privatization, austerity). The release of the pending 12 bil payment from the last bailout will push the confidence vote the right way.  The confidence vote pass through,  should initially spark wave 4 up to the 1290-1300 level before the actual bailout 2.0  agreement gets messed up again and wave 5 down is initiated within 10 days I assume as we get a real ugly Solar eclipse on 1st July.

The sentiment has arrived at quite bearish levels and should soon trigger a bigger rally even from lower levels once 2.0 is finally agreed upon. The Greece are aware of the global implications of their bailout and are playing quite a bargain game before they will at some point default anyway. On the other hand Obama with or against the Reps could take out a lot of bad air as soon as they came to an understanding about the debt ceiling issue which is even a bigger problem going forward.

So far we are following he 100 year playbook as we repeat market wise quite the performance of 1907-1910 with a little delay by a few months – the total correction back then was in the magnitude of 25% so we have only played out 1/3 of the downside target so far. Yet we have reached very oversold levels and will have 2 rallies short term one is due in June part of window dressing and technical aspects once Greece seems to be settled. The bigger one comes after new lows mid July after a real resolution of Greece plus the deeply oversold market by then will give good reason for some value hunters to get the IPO market going again.


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MONDAY, JUNE 13, 2011 Blank Image
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
  Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
  Consensus Bullish Sentiment 46% 50% 56%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441.
AAII Index
  Bullish 29.0% 24.4% 30.2%
  Bearish 42.8 47.7 33.4
  Neutral 28.3 27.9 36.4
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
  Bullish Consensus 51% 50% 59%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
  Indicator 57.8% 57.8% 56.3%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180.
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Market Sentiment


~ by behindthematrix on June 20, 2011.

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