tuesday brainstorming

1. The expected short squeeze runs wave 4 up right now and we are about to reach the minimum upside target of 1290, which is a crucial resistance. The odds are 60% we will break it and rally to 1320 within the next days with the confidence vote we could easily gap above tonight. The perversion is agin with a typical ISE ratio of 93 today which is rather typical for downdays.

NDX has a gap to close at 2250 which is tested right now between 2243-50 which should keep the markets upside for today. Follow through level is 2300-20 with nthe confidence vote. I suspect that the deadline of 3rd Juli has rather some ugly surprises as we are about to get a very ugly Solar eclipse Grand Cross which is a harbinger of bad news to come or lets say it rather tells about a very rocky path for a new beginning but therefor something has to go before. As I wrote last week we have a very volatile week with rather upside bias for this week – since we were also very oversold short term.

The resistance against the bailout is growing on both ends and Greece would be better off defaulting for a fresh start but the financial establishment does not like the risk that their coverup story is blown off and the Ponzi scheme can work without any glitches as obscure enough the health test for EU banks was done with sovereign risks as that had no probability to happen as we can see now plus it would have shown how bankrupt the system is.

excerpt

Each Eurozone Household Will Guarantee €1,450 Of Greek Debt By 2014

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/21/2011 07:51 -0400

Open Europe has released a paper titled “Abandon Ship: Time to stop bailing out Greece?” which recaps all the salient points well-known to everyone on why continuing to bailout Greece is the worst possible decision available to Europe, yet which will come over and over simply to prevent the European banking oligarchy from encountering an Event of Actual Loss (as defined by Encyclopedia Britannica). “Considering Greece’s poor growth prospects and increasing debt burden, the country is likely to default within the next few years, even if it gets some breathing space through a second bail-out. EU leaders should instead be planning for how such a default could be managed in as orderly a manner possible.” Yet the main reason why European taxpayers should be concerned about the happenings in Athens, which are nothing but the latest in a now endless series of taxpayer to banker capital transfers, is that as Open Europe says by 2014, almost two-thirds of Greek debt will be taxpayer-owned! “via the bail-outs, so-called official sector (taxpayer-backed) loans are gradually replacing private sector loans. We estimate that today each household in the eurozone underwrites €535 in Greek debt (through loan guarantees). However, by 2014 and following a second bailout, this will have increased to a staggering €1,450 per household. The cost to European taxpayers of what looks like an inevitable Greek default will therefore  increase radically in the next few years, making a second bail-out far more contentious than any of the previous eurozone rescue packages.” Open Europe economic analyst Raoul Ruparel added: ““A second Greek bail-out is almost certain to result in outright losses for taxpayers further down the road because, even with the help of additional money, Greece remains likely to default within the next few years. Another bailout will also increase the cost of a Greek default, transferring a far bigger chunk of the burden from private investors to taxpayers….Although the uncertainty associated with such an exercise shouldn’t be underestimated, EU leaders should plan for a full, orderly restructuring, which would deal with Greece’s massive debt burden, as soon as possible. However, an honest discussion also needs to be had about whether Greece can realistically remain within the eurozone.” But what “honesty” is possible when the only policy is to extend and pretend until it all finally comes crashing down?

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~ by behindthematrix on June 21, 2011.

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