EURO update

The Euro reached the target area in a more complicated manner than I expected as it build a triangle consolidation pattern with an ABCDE wave and broke out to the down side. The 200 day MA was tested today and the ultimate test will be the 1.37 Р50 level sometime this week before a rebound highly likely. As we count a setup 6 count today til Friday the test should be completed as we can expect a rally in currencies starting around the 19th as  heliocentric Mercury enters Sagittarius. That should also be a time their precious metals will make a brief rally 0f 7-10 days. The reason for the Euro to rise can rather come from Dollar weakness since the debt ceiling raise talks do not go well and could gain pole position again if there is no agreement til this weekend. Tomorrow the Venus Saturn square gets exact which should mark the low for stocks short term as they have reached our target of 1300 SPX which is also rather Euro positive. Basically such a triangle pattern gives a target which is around 1.32 which would mean to break below the strong support line around 1.37 but that is not to be expected this month anyway as we can rather see the 1.37 area test first followed by a 1.42 rally thereafter. Right now we are in a shit race between EU and USA but the soft spot is rather the EU as it does not have the structural strength of the USA. On the other hand USA prefers to weaken the Dollar to gain some momentum for the big corps who do not produce any jobs in USA but imports inflation as the weak Dollar drives commodity prices higher. That is a stupid game as it also makes it harder to find bond buyers soon and will bring the reserve currency status into an obsolete position soon. On the other hand EU politicians are not much smarter as they took on weka countries right from the beginning who cheated their way in and everybody knew that. The global ongoing financial crisis just brought it to the daylight and the inevitable process has been triggered.

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~ by behindthematrix on July 12, 2011.

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