SPX update

The SPX weekly chart shows quite clearly that a new high is very likely before turning down since we entered week 5 which usually with week 6 tends to correct the underlying tend briefly before resuming it. That fits perfectly into the current scenario of debt negotiations as the deadline is just a week away. One downside trigger has become very clear now since the debt negotiations will not be wrapped up with any good and sound solution but a stinking DC compromise the downgrade of US debt can not be avoided anymore and is overdue anyway but on the other hand Japan should be single A as well. Still the downgrade from AAA will have serious consequences as America will lose the status of a reserve currency and the consequences will be rising interest rates for sovereign and corporate America with a weaker Dollar short term. The timing is around October for the probable downgrade but 2-3 months tolerance as the astro picture shows big distress from Oct-Dec, with the worst constellation possible. Q4 will bring markets down a magnitude of 25% at least. Back to the short term picture as we will very likely after a brief correction to 1330 levels push to 1370 and even exceed slightly as a big and sound solution is not likely at all the upside should be limited to 1380-1400. Mid to end of August just before Labour- day get ready for a short position. In an ideal case we produce 2 higher weekly closes above 1364 that will be the point to start building the position. This is a complete fake out rally with no substance whatsoever.

Advertisements

~ by behindthematrix on July 25, 2011.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: