monday brainstorming

1. The expected New Moon rally started already on Friday ( it is never exact the date of the Lunar event one needs to give and take 3-4 days around it). Very benign with Venus and Jupiter involved and Saturn moving away from the USA Sun. A truely relief rally before Saturn will hit even far worse patterns and the Lunar event will fade out latest with the Full Moon.

Since we are in bigger wave 4 already which is unfolding in an ABC pattern it seems thereby we are in C currently I do not see it running to long. The contradicting part is the very bearish sentiment which makes it a bullish situation makes sense only in a way that we will have another quick sell of starting next week after Labourday as we are in week 6 now and finish of wave 5 with slightly new lows before a more extended upside correction will start as the ISE MA’s for example are at extreme levels and that takes usually weeks to change that. That is the only way the whole pattern makes sense and around the next FOMC meeting than markets are lower Bernanke must do a QE 2.5 or markets will crash which could mark the low of wave 5. Markets can not really fall a lot with such a bearish stance other than a very special event like Lehman or AIG in todays terms BAC or SOCGEN go bust. BAC seems to have gathered enough cash for now with Buffett and the China bank stake sold.

The other bad news for bulls is that Apple the bellwether for the markets has come to the expected situation that Steve had to quit and we seem to get quite a top around the 400 for now as we have a triple event with a monthly, weekly and daily SEQ 13 with todays level of 390. Going forward Apple might become an underperformer and see a substantial correction although to much downside is hard to see with the new Iphone due any day now and the hype keeps rolling. When the IOS 5 is able to make another leap towards voice command. The point will be how strong will Nokia come back and I am quite confident with windows 8 they will have quite a comeback as a hunch tells me that being long Nokia and short Apple might be a trade to consider. It depends on the innovation factor Microsoft and Nokia have put into the new software if it can compete with the new IOS 5 version or even outsmart it which is hard to achieve as IOS 5 is still a SJ project and he has proven his track-record as invincible so far. The reason why Nokia is keeping everything secret so far and also Apple has been very restrictive on any leaks is exactly that situation. 



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MONDAY, AUGUST 22, 2011 Blank Image
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 29% 31% 30%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441.
AAII Index
Bullish 36.4% 35.6% 33.4%
Bearish 41.0 39.8 44.8
Neutral 22.6 24.6 21.8
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus 43% 47% 44%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator 44.1% 58.7% 63.8%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180.
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Market Sentiment


~ by behindthematrix on August 29, 2011.

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