1 Screwing around the 1200 SPX as expected the market is preparing for a setback next week but not a full blown test of the lows yet rather more zigzag as the overall sentiment is far too bearish for now. We need a few weeks of sentiment switch but on the other hand the fundamental situation is far too bad for a real recovery. Just because Apple does fine together with some luxury brands does not mean the economy is doing well. Too the contrary if one looks at the srewball films from the 30ies as the depression was running full steam people loved the rich people life on the cinema screen the most. There seems to be an antagonistic correlation between real life and the imagination. Cars are getting more and more exotic and expensive as some people can afford to buy 1 mio Euro cars but that is change compared to what a chopper or lear jet will cost or the 100-200 mio yachts, where switching on the engine costs as much as the one year lease of a middle class home.
My expectation is without having done a real calculation just to give an idea first down to 1150 followed by 1230 within 2-3 weeks followed by a decline to 1000. The only thing that does not match this hunch is rather the astro pattern which shows rather crash pattern for mid November in Euroland and USA separately. Comparing that to another countries recent experience as Turkey had the Pluto Saturn square it dropped 30 very quickly despite a good election outcome from a market perspective. Well America will have a Saturn Pluto square and before that a Saturn Chiron opposition by mid October just to mention some aspects. Euroland will have a very challenging one as well and the bankruptcy of Greece has a high probability around mid November but that is already priced in we should even get news far worse.
Q4 as I mentioned plenty times before will be the most volatile part of 2011 and the most destructive probably although the Solar eclipse in July within a Grand square was pretty bad anyway and we are still processing that which is still in progress. Lets see last time we had almost the same bearish sentiment was in April 2008 and it just took 4-5 weeks before we got into the real crash part as well. With a market in better shape the FED will not announce a big deal around 21st Sep as inflation rides high officially with last CPI at 0,4 after 0,5. That bullet Bernanke has to save for a real rainy day as there is almost nothing left to do with a Japanese yield curve they have done the same stuff basically. No government in the world can afford to piss off its people anymore as they have all used up the credit.. Germany is heading back to Weimar anyway as the more or less 2 party democracy with a pathetic 3rd party is now on a 5 party scale.
Another snake oil salesman faux pas
Jon Stewart Brings Solyndra Mainstream: “That Custom Tailored Obama Scandal You Ordered Is Finally Here”
The biggest scandal to rock the White House since Bill Clinton needed a refresher on the definition of the word “the” has gone fully mainstream after Jon Stewart dedicated his segment last night to “That Custom Tailored Obama Scandal You Ordered.” His summary: “Fox News call your doctor, because the erection you currently have is going to last longer than 4 hours.” Spot on. One thing is missing, however: someone should advise Jon that the missing link, Goldman Sachs, is also, and quite naturally, involved.