Monday brainstorming

1. On the weekend as the astro pattern does tell Greece bankruptcy is back in the spotlight for many reasons. Germany talks tougher again as they have had another election which was devastating for Ms Merkel again. The public opinion is very anti-bailout and the Greece bankruptcy is anyway just a matter of weeks. For their own sake it would be beneficial to leave the Euro since austerity is not the way to steer into depression if the only goal is to pay banks maximum amounts of money.

Something I could not wrap my head around is the fact that the UBS trader was not in Silver or CHF he had huge positions in the DAX, STOXX and SPX and the bank admitted the loss around the  lows. That would mean he was long in those futures and in order to make a 2.3 bil loss on a 10-20% assumption he must have had a 15-20 bil position – which certainly can move the markets if liquidated short term. We indeed had some strange moves in the DAX where sudden moves of 100-200 points within minutes had been seen in the last weeks and everybody kept wondering how they were triggered. Those moves were on the downside though – which might indicate he tried to protect himself probably with stops. still does not make a lot of sense since he claimed on the day the CHF had this 10% intervention that he needed a miracle but stocks moved up that day which would have been in his favor.

The next days are rather on the downside  for 48 hours at least and we may test the 1230 level once again next week before a steeper sell off is due. My idea is still down 1150-60 followed by 1230 which should happen in a volatile manner. Sentiment remains very bearish for now  which is the reason we will very likely not see the lows for a few weeks but starting mid Oct and highly likely by mid Nov. we even make new ones.

excerpt

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2011 Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 33% 29% 31%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish 30.5% 30.2% 38.6%
Bearish 41.4 40.3 32.3
Neutral 28.2 29.5 29.0
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus 43% 43% 49%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator 56.7% 55.9% 55.3%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Market Sentimentv

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~ by behindthematrix on September 19, 2011.

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