1. On the weekend as the astro pattern does tell Greece bankruptcy is back in the spotlight for many reasons. Germany talks tougher again as they have had another election which was devastating for Ms Merkel again. The public opinion is very anti-bailout and the Greece bankruptcy is anyway just a matter of weeks. For their own sake it would be beneficial to leave the Euro since austerity is not the way to steer into depression if the only goal is to pay banks maximum amounts of money.
Something I could not wrap my head around is the fact that the UBS trader was not in Silver or CHF he had huge positions in the DAX, STOXX and SPX and the bank admitted the loss around the lows. That would mean he was long in those futures and in order to make a 2.3 bil loss on a 10-20% assumption he must have had a 15-20 bil position – which certainly can move the markets if liquidated short term. We indeed had some strange moves in the DAX where sudden moves of 100-200 points within minutes had been seen in the last weeks and everybody kept wondering how they were triggered. Those moves were on the downside though – which might indicate he tried to protect himself probably with stops. still does not make a lot of sense since he claimed on the day the CHF had this 10% intervention that he needed a miracle but stocks moved up that day which would have been in his favor.
The next days are rather on the downside for 48 hours at least and we may test the 1230 level once again next week before a steeper sell off is due. My idea is still down 1150-60 followed by 1230 which should happen in a volatile manner. Sentiment remains very bearish for now which is the reason we will very likely not see the lows for a few weeks but starting mid Oct and highly likely by mid Nov. we even make new ones.
|MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2011|
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