Nasdaq Composite monthly update

 The monthly Composite chart shows a clear pattern  as we are trading within a 10 year channel and have tested the upper resistance to break the 15 month uptrend within. We have entered a 9 month consolidation pattern to say the least but rather entered a downtrend cycle which will test the downside channel support til 2 Quarter 2012. The minimum move will be down to 2000 or the 200 month MA which we should reach within the next 4 months. The current situation is clearly a consolidation  within the downtrend as we are still in bearish sentiment but as mentioned before we had quite the same bearish set-up in Mar/Apr 2008 and you all will remember what happened finally within the next 12 months. Almost the same is also fundamentally true for now as some banks will bite the dust together with some sovereigns – only a matter of time but that reflects less on this specific Index as it is very little correlated to financials but obviously to macro economic momentum and except Apple and their suppliers and some Android smartphone producers and suppliers things do not look good at all. Even Amazon one of the most overpriced stocks out there has still upside momentum against any common sense therefor the Tech sector outperforms still. Once the Iphone 5 hype is turned into real terms sometime within the next month the stock will be one of the most important drivers with mio of new Chinese customers it will easily hit the 450 level once it breaks above the 400. Therefor Tech might be a relative outperformer for a few more weeks but as the depression gets more real the next weeks some smartphone buyers might realize that 600-1000 Dollar gimmicks as smartphones are not the choice of the day anymore although the irrational human tends to have some luxury especially than times are hard it seems. For now we are in roller-coaster mode within wave 4 up ( or we are already within the ABC correction and have entered wave Cs final part) which comes down to the same result as the Comp runs into heavy resistance at 2650 max 2700 before we drop back to 2450-2500 – that is pretty much the agenda for the next 4 weeks. The upcoming New Moon on the 27th is a tough one as it happens within the big T-square pattern defined by the Solar Eclipse 3 months ago and will again trigger a sell off as we are heading for a very unfriendly mi October pattern.

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~ by behindthematrix on September 19, 2011.

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