friday brainstorming

1. Flipped through plenty bank charts and it looks ugly to say the least almost all have a date with their 2009 lows ahead and some will exceed very likely like BAC. We have another 3 months of ugly downside ahead in finacials but also for the general market rather a bit more as financials are leading the way down.

The next best thing in Oct is my hunch after the iminent 10% sell out from current levels the ECB will cut rates even before Draghi comes on board and Trichet will have made the same mistake again before he leaves. Greece default talk intensifies again and the best thing for the market would be if they did it already since it is just a matter of time ( short time). A cleansing of the market would be helpful after the 10% panic selling it could at least get a reality check.

Germany has 2 options rather it exits the EU itself which would rather send markets in a bigger turmoil as the bailout power for the other PIIGS quiting would create a big panic. Furthermore by treaty laws it can not quit anyway and it would be sued by the other countries to say the least for hundreds of billions. Worst case could even trigger war – even America would be very pissed about such a move.

The other option is to let Greece default now and take on for the team and bailout with even more money which is very unpopular as 80% of Germans do not want any more money going to Greece (foreign banks).

The problem at the end of the day there is no good solution except let gravity take its cause in a controlled way as the EU was founded it was based on many corrupted principles and statistics almost everyone cheated on the statistics right from the beginning in order to cheat the people as the EURO is the biggest ripp off in the history probably with hidden inflation and cheating people out of retirement money true for Germany but very unfairly overpaying Greece pensions on the other hand. Greece pensions are far richer than Germans and are financed by Germany from the beginning. That was a wealth transfer of insane proportions tomput it into nice terms.

The biggest charade is that Japan the most broke country and a faking rich China or even Brasil claim to be White Knights – they will have a hard time saving their own asses soon as the Commodity break down as the real depression looms will take down  demand for commodity prices and demand for products in general. Going short luxury good makers may be a good idea as bonus pooles will be very small this year and the stocks the most part of bonuses are paid out in are not worth a lot. Hence whatever cash they get they rather will not spend as more job cuts are a given even at Goldman.

excerpt

 

China, Japan Tell Europe: “No Blank Check For You”

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2011 – 02:05China default European Union Eurozone Global Economy Greece International Monetary Fund Italy Japan PortugalRecession Sovereign Debt Unemployment Wen Jiabao

Remember all those daily rumors (prmarily courtesy of the FT) that either China, or Japan, or Europe itself would bailout Europe (yeah, don’t ask). Well we can put them all to rest…for at least a few more hours. Because in the battle of inverse counter disinformation, it is important to refute the rumors you yourself have created just so next time the same rumor is spread it has some impact…. Unfortunately said impact will be less, much less, with every single iteration, until just like central bank intervention, its impact is lost in the noise. Per Businessweek: “Officials from China and Japan, the world’s second- and third-biggest economies, indicated that their support for Europe will have limits  and the region needs to solve its own debt crisis. Japanese Finance Jun Azumi said in Washington today that while his nation can buy European Financial Stability Facility bonds if needed, there is no blank check. “At the margin we can do quite a bit to help,” Chinese central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang said in a panel discussion yesterday at the International Monetary Fund in the same city. At the same time, “the real solution of the European sovereign debt crisis has to be done by Europeans themselves.” Good luck in that whole Europeans coming up with a solution: after all it was mere hours ago that France’s Baroin said that the Eurozone is “open to support from others.” Translation: “Show us the money.” In other news, the countdown for the latest European bailout rumors from the FT is now on.

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~ by behindthematrix on September 23, 2011.

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