monday brainstorming

1. The wall of wary manipulation ist still with momentum as the bearish sentiment is still on and will take a bit of time as back in March to May 2008 to de-compress. The 50 Day ISE MA is still at 94 which was the low back then and last summer as well.

I expected rather a pullback today as we are about to test the June low of 1258, which is an important mark and should rather trigger a minor setback to the 1220-30 level as we entered week 4 on the upside and a swing around last weeks close after such a steep rally is very likely.

This week at the 27th is a benign New Moon which should set the tone for the next 2 weeks as the rally will be running higher. So far we are buying the rumor and the final release of the EFSF on Wednesday or Thursday may bring some brief profit taking. After all there is no reason to cheer if the German parliament sticks to the 211 bln max exposure nothing has been achieved at all and even if they were to raise it it will not be enough as the ongoing discussions are just bringing consumers to the truth that scaling down is the onluy sane strategy going forward. Which will ultimately trigger an economic downturn in higher gear.

Despite the current Apple hype which is ironically helped by the death of Steve Jobs will stall soon after Christmas the stock will reflect that earlier as we have still the missing 13 count whicch is due at a cclose above 420 which is about 2 weeks away. The apple TV rumor is getting real now as Jobs confirmed the research with a comment – makes sens anyway but would be the ultimate Samsung killer with a voice ( Siri) driven set with a lot of smart features.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/10/24/apple_building_prototype_televisions_for_potential_2012_launch_report.html

excerpt

 

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2011 Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 35% 34% 28%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish 36.0% 39.8% 35.2%
Bearish 34.6 36.4 45.7
Neutral 29.4 23.9 19.1
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus 48% 47% 39%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator 51.4% 51.9% 53.9%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Market Sentiment

 

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~ by behindthematrix on October 24, 2011.

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