tuesday brainstorming

•February 7, 2012 • Leave a Comment

1. VIX did not manage to make the 13 yet as yesterdays strong rise in an extreme low volume day was counterproductive. Also we have on the 8th a special high volatility day as Venus will be conjunct Uranus which is perfect to set the top for now as the Saturn effect has to be given 2-3 days tolerance. The SPX makes a 9 week SD counts which causes at least a consolidation but given the strong recent upside the least will be 1290/1300 we can expect to the downside.

Greece can not afford to obey these rules set by the EU, which does not serve the purpose to heal the Greece situation, they are rather concentrating on the fact that their money is not stolen – which is a decent approach from their angle. Greece has only one real option to heal that is to exit the Euro, stop paying any bonds for now and getting their act together. They will have to fire many state workers as they are overpaid and its pathetic that over 20% of the workforce work for the government. With a decent government they would collect taxes from the upper middle class and the elite as well. The EU should not give any more money to Greece either way.

Sarkozy having his elections close by and his opponent leading in the polls is tempted to play the hero but saving Greece is not an heroic act as Europe has arrived at the condense that there will be live beyond a Greece default with all the money printing by Draghi banks are now roved with enough liquidity to survive the short term fall-out.

Greece may be tempted to promise things it can not keep to buy time and suck in funds but the inevitable fact is their bankruptcy and exit from the Euro zone in the next weeks.

Sunday brainstorming

•February 5, 2012 • Leave a Comment

1. Now all ingredients came together for a market correction on Friday on a technical level as the VIX printed a 12 count with diving below the Bollinger-band just to mention one. Also one very crucial event has arrived the stationary Saturn around zero degree which usually is a market tuner by itself but what makes it more powerful is the position it will have to many charts which are very negative. It makes a square to USA’s natal Pluto, probably more important it makes a T-square with the Euro natal saturn / Venus square which is almost a safe bet that Greece will have to default and the negotiations will break down. After writing down 70% of bond value what is the logic in throwing another 150 bil into Greece – on the other hand what none mentions that is the amount which lies on Swiss Acs  by the GREECE ELİTE and marks the amout they have stolen from the EU the last 10 years. If anything they should be forced to repatriate all that money and refinance Greece themselves.

Anyway the turn of the die hard rally is about  a 48h time window now considering the technical picture and the SPX will dive about 100 points to the 1240-50 level before another upside attempt will start mainly on the tech side as the NDX will go towards the 2600-700 level and crash thereafter with the Facebook IPO in Q2.

Friday brainstorming – die hard tops are really challenging

•February 3, 2012 • Leave a Comment

1. Lets start with the Grimms Maerchen – fairy tails from Obama-land the job miracle – you only need to read the following numbers to understand for yourself how screwed up the whole thing is. 243k  plus  vs 2.7 mio  minus and still the harvard morons keep buying the hype as the other hype Facebook is going to be placed as a top marker soon. With all big tops comes a big IPO.. Hence for the real top we still ned a few weeks but in the meantime we will see a volatile roller coaster starting early next week as the VIX makes the 13 count now. Same time Saturn goes stationary at very negative spot on the 7th Feb so we get a real god taste for what a Dragon year is good for.

excerpt

How many jobs did the American economy add in January?

The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.

The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.


The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustmentEmployment always falls in January, as temporary Christmas jobs end. So the government applies seasonal adjustment factors in an effort to discern the real trend of the economy apart from seasonal fluctuations. The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs. The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.


A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions. Labor mobility is down, as fewer workers quit to seek better jobs and employers both hire and fire fewer people than they used to do. If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller.

DOW monthly update

•January 30, 2012 • Leave a Comment

The DOW has reached the pattern target of 12800 and challenged the trend resistance around 12600 but reversed lower on a weekly level. The immediate pullback is back to 11800-12000 the next 2 weeks as an initial move. The complicating factor right now is the inter market divergence which gives Tech more upside overall. As the Dow has reached a weekly count 9 (setup) the NDX is just at a week 4 count. Furthermore the NDX is producing new ( relative highs for the last 10 years but not in absolute terms and 2000 levels). Hence the monthly chart of the NDX is pointing clearly to more upside. The DOW can not easily go above 12850 for the time being as the sentiment snow bullish ( not extremely) and a pullback has already started and will bring initially a 1000 point drop. Thereafter the NDX will climb very likely to new highs with SPX and DOW best case retesting current highs. A very important indication is that with the DOW the VIX and VXO have made 9 week counts to levels which easily have the level to serve as lows around 16.  My assumption is that DOW and SPX will entered wave 1 down but the NDX will make new highs after the imminent correction before joining the party. One strong indicator is my favorite long AAPL which is after the last earnings blow out really cheap plus they have 100 bil in cash ( they need to start a Hedge Fund or start to pay dividends). Or buy Greece and get themselves a 0 tax break as the new rulers of the old empire.

part 2

•January 24, 2012 • Leave a Comment

2. What might hold the drop back for 24h is the AAPL effect as this stock delivers earnings tomorrow and I have no doubt it will be a blow away number easily at 10 and above but it will rather deliver a sell the news situation. another factor is the Joe Grainville for a top based on the pathetic volume mostly ( the 23rd Jan has delivered a few top in history) and we made yesterday a new high with the lowest NYSE volume in 9 years. Todays New Moon is in a very challenging T-Square with Jupiter and Saturn which will be enforced by tomorrows Mars retrogade. The short side should deliver by all odds – its a bit like counting cards in Black Jack this time you can go in on bigger scale and some people seem to do so as the ISE shows very high put buying around 50 right now which is an extreme number. Apple gives plenty of sell signals on a tech basis although he stock is not expensive at all. Stil it needs to make a down-wave to clear the way. VIX is one count away from completing a daily 13 count sequential but in a weekly setup 9 week always a time there trends can and mostly do change either short term or for good. the VXO 8 VOL on the oex100 has already made full counts on daily basis. The orst scenario in my book is rather due on 7th Feb with Saturn going retrogade at a very crucial spot but that is rather wave 3 down material. For now we want the SPX to drop to the 1240-50 level.

excerpt

Calamity Joe Is Back – Last week, we wrote that various cycles and technicians were pointing to a possible market top, on or about January 23rd. The “causes” ranged from sophisticated oscillators to the new moon to astrological confluences. Yesterday, one more “cause” was added and it came from a somewhat controversial Wall Street legend – Joe Granville. Here’s a bit from a Bloomberg review of Mr. G’s call:

Joseph Granville, whose “sell everything” call in 1981 sparked a decline in U.S. stocks, said the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) will drop toward 8,000 this year because of waning momentum and volume.

 

“Volume precedes prices,” Granville, 88, a technical analyst who has been publishing the Granville Market Letter from Kansas City, Missouri for about 50 years, said in an interview on “Street Smart” on Bloomberg Television. “You are seeing much lower volume. That tells you that prices are going to go much lower, much lower than most people think possible and very few people have projected.”

tuesday brainstorming

•January 24, 2012 • Leave a Comment
1. Markets are within the process to confirm the top as the NQ made the 13 count and ES has it by today. Sentiment has improved to the bullish side with out being euphoric but very obviously some bet their house that QE3 will make their day wit the best start into January since 1987. We have at least a trading top and start with wave 1 down within this week. My target is the 1240-50 initially for the SPX – in order to get a big top we ned some roller coaster action within the 1220- 1320 zone.

excerpt

 

Blank Image
MONDAY, JANUARY 23, 2012 Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week 2 Weeks Ago. 3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 69% 68% 66%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish 47.2% 49.1% 48.9%
Bearish 23.6 17.2 17.2
Neutral 29.2 33.7 34.0
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus 60% 59% 56%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator 51.1% 52.8% 53.1%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Market Sentiment

SPX monthly update

•January 20, 2012 • Leave a Comment

The SPX is in our target zone to exit all remaining longs ( except special situations) and enter shorts as we are about to make at least a trading top ( 5-7% down). The 1310 level carries a risk of up to 1330 higher thats why I do build up the position. The cash has already a 13 count the ES future makes an 11 count today. As important even more indicative is that Apple made it to my target are of 420-30 to complete the counts and the NQ ( Nasdaq future) counts a daily 12 today around the target area 2430-50. The astro patterns do also align for a top these days as do some cycle counts ( very good input from http://www.Insiide.com – check it out). The least drop potential I am looking for is down to 1240-50. Big tops are made anyway with some roller-coaster volatility and the timing for that is around 7th Feb when Saturn goes retrogade at a very crucial level – that is the time where I expect even a steeper drop to start. In EW terms the immediate drop is rather a wave 1 down but the ugly part is usually wave 3 down which should rather happen around that early Feb. date.