Friday brainstorming – die hard tops are really challenging
1. Lets start with the Grimms Maerchen – fairy tails from Obama-land the job miracle – you only need to read the following numbers to understand for yourself how screwed up the whole thing is. 243k plus vs 2.7 mio minus and still the harvard morons keep buying the hype as the other hype Facebook is going to be placed as a top marker soon. With all big tops comes a big IPO.. Hence for the real top we still ned a few weeks but in the meantime we will see a volatile roller coaster starting early next week as the VIX makes the 13 count now. Same time Saturn goes stationary at very negative spot on the 7th Feb so we get a real god taste for what a Dragon year is good for.
How many jobs did the American economy add in January?
The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.
The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month.
The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment. Employment always falls in January, as temporary Christmas jobs end. So the government applies seasonal adjustment factors in an effort to discern the real trend of the economy apart from seasonal fluctuations. The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs. The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.
A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions. Labor mobility is down, as fewer workers quit to seek better jobs and employers both hire and fire fewer people than they used to do. If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller.